As we look ahead to the circus of speculation and analysis around the '08 Presidential Elections, we must first acknowledge that no one, particularly in a close election (as the last two have been and as the next one is likely to be), can predict what will happen on Election Day. We can, however, look to past elections for "lessons learned" on how-to, or how-not-to run a Presidential Campaign.
a) Campaigning and Governing are NOT the same thing
Good campaigners do NOT necessarily make good Executives. Unfortunately, the skills required to campaign well (smiling, staying on message, eating profuse amounts of local fare) are often misaligned with the skills required to govern well (building consensus, managing the press, putting together intelligble sentences when speaking on the world stage). One can be a likable incompetent and find oneself in office, ill-equipped for the challenges that daunt heads of state, all just because they know how to backslap, shake hands and eat the occasional corn dog.
b) Authenticity Counts
Al Gore and John Kerry were certainly not lacking in qualifications to govern, yet both of them made the mistake of pandering. I remember in 2000 during one debate, the moderator through a meatball to Gore over the plate about the environment, and I thought to myself, "he's gonna knock this one out of the park, this is HIS issue." And then he bunted, choking up on the bat to appease business interests who he presumed would be scared by the idea of having an "Environmental President". I voted 3rd party. If Nader's votes had gone to Gore, he would have won without controversy.
Kerry's ill-fated "hunting trip" in Ohio in 2004 was a futile attempt to connect with so-called "values voters" in this ever-important swing state. It ended up backfiring, making him look like a phony to those swing voters who were undecided.
Voters typically need to know where a candidate stands on an issue or two before they decide whether they'll vote for that candidate. I heard liberals in '04 complain that they couldn't bring themselves to vote for Kerry because they couldn't for the life of them figure out where he stood on their issues. Many of them conceded that even though they disagreed with Dubya, they at least felt clear on where he stood (in the middle of a patch of political quicksand). So they voted 3rd party as a "none of the above" option, or simply abstained from voting the top of the ticket.
c) Be Likable
Bill Clinton and George W. Bush have one thing in common: and it is not necessarily that voters could relate to these candidates, but rather, that voters felt that these candidates could relate to them. Whether it was authentic or not, they could speak to people in a room on their level, as fellow human beings.
d) Never Mind the Pundits
National elections are won outside the beltway. Tim Russert, while he may be influential in DC, New York, and LA, hardly has his finger on the pulse of the American Electorate. You can court the media for social benefit, but they are a fickle lot and ultimately serve an even more fickle master, advertisers and the viewing public.
e) Lead
Take the lead on an issue, be proactive. Most voters are one-or-two-issue voters and are ambivalent on most other issues. That is to say, they can be swayed by a convincing and courageous argument if it makes sense to them.
f) Own the Air, Control the Ground.
Strategically, take a top-down and bottom-up approach. Attack on the air waves, but be sure to coordinate it with an organized structure for rallying the troops of voters to get to the polls on Election Day.
g) Ensure Electoral Integrity.
Don't rush to concede, let the system, however broke it may be, run its course. Sure, elections should be decided at the polls, but if there is any foul play, the courts should be in a position to sort it out.
None of these are intellectually groundbreaking insights, just simple observations from the past that might serve for the present and future.
No comments:
Post a Comment